30 Aug 2025

Indian Markets Set for Flat to Positive Opening Amid Global Cues; Traders Eye GDP Data Release

Indian equity markets are expected to open on a flat to positive note on Friday, supported by strong global cues. However, traders are likely to maintain a cautious, wait-and-watch stance ahead of the release of India’s GDP data for the April–June quarter. Persistent selling by foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) could weigh on overall sentiment.

Key factors to watch:

  • Industrial output rises to 4-month high: India’s industrial production grew 3.5% in July 2025, marking a 4-month high, driven by a strong performance in the manufacturing sector.

  • FM assures exporters of support: Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman assured exporters that the government will extend full support to safeguard their interests against high US tariffs, while exploring avenues to address their concerns.

  • India hopeful of resuming US trade talks: Reports indicate India is optimistic about restarting negotiations on the proposed bilateral trade agreement (BTA), with resolving the steep 50% tariff on Indian goods a key priority.

  • US tariff impact on growth: Former Commerce and Home Secretary G. K. Pillai said that a 50% US tariff on Indian shipments could moderate India’s growth by around 0.5% if alternative markets are not tapped.

  • Duty-free cotton imports extended: The Centre’s move to extend duty-free cotton imports until December 31, 2025, is expected to strengthen India’s export competitiveness, reviving orders for SMEs and export-oriented units.

Global cues:
US markets ended in green on Thursday as revised data showed stronger-than-expected Q2 2025 growth. Asian markets also traded mostly higher on Friday, tracking the positive US trend.

Domestic markets recap:
Indian benchmarks ended lower for a second straight day on Thursday as an additional 25% tariff by the US on India’s Russian oil imports came into effect. Persistent foreign fund outflows also hurt investor confidence. The BSE Sensex fell 705.97 points or 0.87% to close at RS. 80,080.57, while the CNX Nifty declined 211.15 points or 0.85% to RS. 24,500.90.

Other developments:

  • Crisil cautioned that uncertainties around US tariffs could hinder capital expenditure decisions in FY26.

  • Former NITI Aayog CEO Amitabh Kant said India should treat US tariffs as an opportunity to undertake bold reforms and diversify export markets.

  • Employment in industries rose 5.92% to 1.95 crore in FY24, up from 1.84 crore in FY23, according to ASI data.