Indian markets closed with modest gains on Tuesday, though a sharp sell-off in the final hour trimmed intra-day highs, driven by heightened geopolitical tensions. Trading remained shut on Wednesday, November 20, for Maharashtra state elections. On Thursday, markets are expected to open cautiously, tracking mixed global cues. Investor focus will remain on the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, with foreign fund outflows adding to concerns as FIIs offloaded ₹3,411 crore worth of equities on November 19.

Domestically, worries persist as ICRA predicts a slowdown in India’s real GDP growth to 6.5% for Q2 FY24, citing excessive rains and subdued corporate results. Economic Affairs Secretary Ajay Seth acknowledged potential Q2 softness but maintained that full-year growth should remain between 6.5-7%.

Some optimism comes from the GTRI report forecasting a shift in India’s export patterns, with services exports expected to exceed merchandise exports by 2030, reaching $618 billion. Meanwhile, the Reserve Bank highlighted a bullish medium-term outlook, citing revived private consumption due to festive spending.

Sectoral focus includes solar stocks as the International Solar Alliance projects a 40-60% drop in solar energy costs by 2050, and metal stocks following Acuite Ratings’ prediction of a 20-million-tonne increase in India’s steel capacity by FY27. The insurance sector could also see activity, with its AUM projected to grow from $0.7 trillion in 2023 to $11 trillion by 2047. Additionally, paper industry stocks may react to reports of rising imports, particularly from China.

Globally, US markets closed mostly positive on Wednesday amid concerns over Russia-Ukraine tensions and weak corporate results. Asian markets traded mixed on Thursday following Nvidia’s strong earnings.

On Tuesday, Indian equity benchmarks ended positively, led by Realty and Auto stocks. Markets had initially surged after the NSSO reported a decline in urban unemployment to 6.4% in Q2 FY24 from 6.6% in the previous quarter. Support also came from CRISIL’s report highlighting India’s resilience in services trade and robust remittances amid global challenges. Afternoon gains were bolstered by revised capital restructuring norms for CPSEs and optimism over government initiatives like Make in India. However, geopolitical tensions and profit-booking erased some gains in the final hour.

The Sensex closed up 239.37 points at 77,578.38, while the Nifty rose 64.70 points to end at 23,518.50.