Indian stock markets are likely to open in positive territory today, following encouraging signals from international markets. On Monday, the markets saw a significant decline of around 1.5% due to widespread profit booking. However, today's outlook appears brighter, boosted by comments from NITI Aayog CEO B.V.R. Subrahmanyam, who highlighted the rapid growth of India's industrial sector, suggesting the country could target over 9% economic growth. He also noted a rise in jobs in the manufacturing sector, with employment increasing by 7.5% in 2022-23, according to Annual Survey of Industries data.
Additionally, the government's fiscal deficit has reached 27% of the full-year target in the first five months, lower than last year's 36% during the same period. However, foreign institutional investor (FII) outflows may impact market sentiment negatively, as FIIs sold equities worth ₹9,792 crore on September 30. Concerns also arise from a recent contraction in key infrastructure sectors, which declined by 1.8% in August 2024, compared to a 6.1% growth in July.
Moreover, the current account deficit widened to $9.7 billion in the April-June quarter, from $8.9 billion a year ago. On the brighter side, Indian pharmaceutical companies are expected to see revenue growth of 9-11% this year, though slightly lower than last year’s growth. Metal stocks are likely to gain attention, as India has launched an anti-dumping investigation on imports of electrical steel from China. The consumer durables sector is also projected to grow to ₹5 lakh crore by 2030, creating 5 lakh jobs.
In global markets, U.S. stocks closed higher on Monday after a volatile session, and Asian markets are trading mixed today. Japanese market reactions are focused on the Bank of Japan’s third-quarter survey on business sentiment.
Back home, Monday's losses in the Indian markets were driven by heavy selling in major stocks like Reliance Industries, Axis Bank, and Mahindra & Mahindra, along with concerns over Middle Eastern geopolitical tensions and weak performances in Japan. Investors were cautious ahead of the release of several key economic data points later this week. Despite a gloomy market, Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal’s positive update on the success of the Production Linked Incentive (PLI) schemes was largely overlooked.
At the close of Monday’s session, the BSE Sensex fell by 1,272 points (1.49%) to 84,299.78, while the Nifty declined by 368 points (1.41%) to 25,810.85.