22 Aug 2024

Positive Start Expected as Oil Prices Drop, Trade Targets Rise

Indian markets closed slightly higher on Wednesday after a volatile session, impacted by foreign capital outflows. However, a positive opening is anticipated today, supported by a drop in oil prices driven by lower demand and indications from the latest Federal Reserve meeting of potential rate cuts due to easing inflation and rising unemployment. 

Commerce & Industry Minister Piyush Goyal's statement encouraging India and Africa to aim for $200 billion in bilateral trade within seven years may boost investor sentiment. He emphasized expanding partnerships with more African nations to reach this goal. 

Despite this optimism, foreign fund outflows could affect market mood as FIIs continued to sell Indian equities, recording net sales worth Rs 799.74 crore on Wednesday. Additionally, S&P Global Market Intelligence predicts a slowdown in dividend growth for India’s largest banks due to rising deposit costs and fierce competition for customer savings, which may squeeze bank margins and profits. 

Jewellery stocks may see some movement as the Gem and Jewellery Export Promotion Council (GJEPC) reported a 21.93% decline in exports for July, attributed to waning global demand. Auto sector stocks will also be in focus due to a report from FADA highlighting passenger vehicle sales slumping and creating an inventory pile-up worth Rs 73,000 crore at dealerships nationwide.

Metal stocks might react to a report indicating that India remains a net importer of steel, with China as the largest supplier. India imported 2.69 million metric tons of steel from April to July, while exporting only 1.57 million tons. Meanwhile, NBFC stocks could draw attention as ICRA reported funding challenges for Non-Banking Financial Companies, leading to a slower growth rate of 13%-15% in assets under management this financial year.

Internationally, US markets closed higher on Wednesday as the Federal Reserve's meeting minutes fueled hopes of future rate cuts. In Asia, markets were largely in the red on Thursday, with investors digesting business activity data from Australia and Japan, while the Bank of Korea held its interest rates steady at 3.5%.

Back in India, equity benchmarks closed on a positive note on Wednesday after a choppy session, supported by gains in Consumer Durables, FMCG, and Healthcare sectors. Despite continuous foreign fund outflows, selective buying in the final hour helped markets to register marginal gains. Encouragement came from a Labour Ministry report showing a net addition of 19.29 lakh EPFO members in June 2024, driven by increased employment and effective outreach programs.

Further optimism was fueled by IMF Executive Director Krishnamurthy V Subramanian's prediction that India's economy could reach $55 trillion by 2047, provided it maintains an 8% real growth rate and inflation remains around 5%. However, caution prevailed in global markets ahead of the US Federal Reserve's minutes, capping domestic market gains. 

Finally, the BSE Sensex gained 102.44 points to close at 80,905.30, and the CNX Nifty rose by 71.35 points to 24,770.20.