09 Aug 2024

Positive Start Expected for Markets Amid Global Share Rally

Indian markets ended in negative territory on Thursday after the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), led by Governor Shaktikanta Das, decided to keep the repo rate steady at 6.5% for the ninth consecutive time. However, a positive start is anticipated today as global shares see a strong pullback, easing fears of a US recession. Support for the markets comes from the RBI's statement that India's current account deficit (CAD) remains manageable. Additionally, capital markets regulator Sebi has proposed a revised format for compliance reports by Foreign Venture Capital Investors (FVCIs), who must provide quarterly reports on their activities.

Despite these positive signs, foreign fund outflows might affect market sentiment. On Thursday, foreign institutional investors (FIIs) net sold stocks worth Rs 2,626.73 crore, pushing the monthly net sales in August beyond Rs 20,000 crore. The RBI's household inflation expectation survey indicates rising inflation concerns among Indian households compared to May this year.

Garment industry stocks are expected to gain attention as a CareEdge report suggests that India could benefit from Bangladesh's economic challenges, potentially securing monthly export orders worth $200-250 million in the short term. Logistics stocks may see activity as Union Minister Nitin Gadkari announced a reduction in India's logistics cost to 9% of GDP by April next year, which could boost exports.

The FMCG sector is also in focus, with a report indicating a 4% growth in value and a 3.8% increase in volumes for April-June compared to the same period last year. The leather industry might react to Union Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal's target of $50 billion in exports by 2030. Meanwhile, Ola Electric Mobility will be listed on the Mainboard, and Picture Post Studios and Afcom Holdings will debut on the SME market today.

US markets closed higher on Thursday due to positive labor market data that alleviated recession concerns. Asian markets are trading positively on Friday, following Wall Street's momentum.

In the previous session, Indian equity benchmarks struggled to maintain their recovery, ending near the day's lows due to losses in Metal, IT, and Utilities stocks amid weak global cues. Investors booked profits following the RBI's decision to keep the repo rate unchanged, maintaining a hawkish stance due to high food inflation. The central bank also kept the GDP growth projection at 7.2% for FY25. Comments from 16th Finance Commission Chairman Arvind Panagariya on the need for economic reforms also influenced trading.

Despite initial losses, the markets saw a brief recovery in early afternoon deals, supported by RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das' statement on the resilience of domestic economic activity. The passing of the Finance Bill 2024 by Lok Sabha, aimed at simplifying tax laws and promoting growth and employment, also provided some support. However, markets fell sharply in late afternoon deals due to continuous foreign fund outflows and a weak trend in US markets. FIIs were net sellers, offloading shares worth Rs 3,314.76 crore on Wednesday.

Finally, the BSE Sensex fell 581.79 points or 0.73% to 78,886.22, and the CNX Nifty was down 180.50 points or 0.74% to 24,117.00.