Indian markets concluded a volatile session with modest gains on Thursday. Today, however, markets are expected to open lower, influenced by a global sell-off. There is some caution as the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecasted above-normal monsoon rains for the remaining two months (August-September), with September expected to receive more rain than August. This forecast is significant as excessive rain in September could harm the maturing kharif crops. 

On a positive note, foreign fund inflows may support market sentiment. On Thursday, foreign institutional investors (FIIs) bought stocks worth Rs 2,089.28 crore. Additional support may come from the government data showing that GST collections in July rose by 10.3% to over Rs 1.82 trillion, driven mainly by domestic transactions. This is the third-highest monthly collection since the GST regime was implemented seven years ago.

Meanwhile, India and Vietnam have strengthened their strategic partnership with a new action plan, as Prime Minister Narendra Modi emphasized cooperation towards a free and rules-based Indo-Pacific region, focusing on development rather than expansionism.

In the coal sector, the government reported a 6.69% year-on-year increase in India's coal production to 74.07 million tonnes (MT) in July. The banking sector will also be in focus as Moody's has viewed the Reserve Bank of India's new draft guidelines to enhance banks' liquidity management positively. These guidelines suggest banks allocate an additional 5% reduction in the stability of retail deposits accessible via internet and mobile banking.

Power sector stocks may react as India's power consumption in July rose by 3.5% to 145.40 Billion Units (BU) compared to the same period last year, helped by cooler temperatures due to rainfall. Investors will also be eyeing Q1 earnings reports and forex reserve data.

In the primary market, Ola Electric's Rs 6,145.56 crore IPO opens for subscription on Friday, with shares priced between Rs 72 - Rs 76 each. Tour and travel stocks will be in the spotlight as CRISIL Ratings predicts a 15-17% revenue increase for India's tour and travel operators this fiscal year, driven by rising domestic tourism and an increasing tendency to travel overseas.

US markets closed lower on Thursday due to disappointing earnings and weaker-than-expected manufacturing data. Asian markets are also trading lower on Friday, following the sell-off on Wall Street.

Back in India, equity benchmarks ended in green on Thursday, led by gains in utilities, power, and energy stocks. Markets reached new record highs, buoyed by Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal's optimistic remarks about India's economic future and Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman's balanced budget, which aims to boost local manufacturing, employment, and India's share in global growth. 

However, markets lost some of their morning gains as FIIs sold equities worth Rs 3,462 crore on July 31. Concerns also arose from the Ministry of Commerce & Industry's data showing a slowdown in the output of eight core industries to 4% in June 2024 from 8.4% a year earlier. Additionally, the manufacturing sector growth eased in July, with the HSBC India Manufacturing PMI declining slightly to 58.1 from 58.3 in June 2024. Despite these concerns, key indices regained momentum in the final minutes of trade, ending at record high levels, as the US Federal Reserve indicated a possible rate cut by September. 

Finally, the BSE Sensex rose 126.21 points or 0.15% to 81,867.55, while the CNX Nifty gained 59.75 points or 0.24% to 25,010.90.