12 Oct 2023

Markets likely to get flat-to-positive start ahead of key macro-economic data

Indian markets ended with solid gains for a second session on Wednesday as traders continued to set aside fears related to the Israel-Palestine conflict. Today, markets are likely to get flat-to-positive start ahead of the key inflation data in India and the US. There are expectations that the India’s inflation eased in the month of September. Also, market participants awaiting the industrial growth data to be out later in the day. Investors are likely to keep eye on IT stocks after as TCS' Q2 profit beat estimates and Infosys and HCL Technologies are scheduled to announce Q2 earnings today. Some support will come as India and the United Kingdom (UK) are likely to sign a Foreign Trade Agreement (FTA) by the end of October as both parties aim to iron out differences on key issues, including rules of origin and visas for Indian professionals. However, traders may be concerned as according to the latest estimates by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in its Fiscal Monitor report India’s debt-to-GDP ratio is projected to peak at 82.3 per cent in FY25, and then it may gradually ease to touch 80.5 per cent in FY29. Traders may take note of report that Petroleum and Natural Gas Minister Hardeep Singh Puri warned surging oil prices could hinder the economic recovery of many nations by curbing demand. Meanwhile, the government has decided to hold off introducing the production-linked incentive (PLI) scheme for additional sectors until it verifies the efficacy of existing initiatives. Steel industry stocks will be in focus with a private report that strong demand in the domestic market, coupled with an increase in raw material prices, is pushing up steel prices. There will be some reaction in sugar industry stocks with a private report that the Indian government is likely to restrict sugar exports after poor monsoon rains. Aviation industry stocks will be in limelight with a private report that average daily domestic traffic increased by 1.65 per cent month-on-month (M-o-M) to 408,906 in September.

The US markets ended higher on Wednesday after the FOMC's September meeting minutes showed the Fed is poised to proceed carefully on interest rate decision going forward. Asian markets are trading in green on Thursday following overnight gains on Wall Street.

Back home, Indian equity benchmarks continued their gaining momentum for the second consecutive day and ended with gains of over half a percent on Wednesday backed by buying across a majority of sectors, with stocks from the Telecom, Basic Materials and Auto sectors being the biggest movers. Markets made a positive start and stayed in green for whole day, as traders took support with the Ministry of Finance stating that India's gross direct tax collection increased by 17.95 per cent on the year to Rs 11.07 lakh crore in the period from April 1 to October 9. Sentiments remained positive in late afternoon deals, as traders took support with private report stating that World Bank group's India-born chief economist Indermit Gill is upbeat on India's focus on infrastructure, digital public goods and overall economic management. Traders remained optimistic as Prime Minister Narendra Modi said that India is a global bright spot, a powerhouse of growth and innovation. Investors found support after former economic affairs secretary Atanu Chakraborty said that India is expected to become a $30-trillion economy by 2050 pushed by robust consumption and exports. Adding to the optimism, the Minister of Petroleum & Natural Gas and Housing & Urban Affairs, Hardeep Singh Puri highlighted the fast progress made by India in green and clean energy sector and said India's energy demand will continue to provide fuel for future economic growth and is bound to grow exponentially in the coming years. Finally, the BSE Sensex rose 393.69 points or 0.60% to 66,473.05 and the CNX Nifty was up by 121.50 points or 0.62% to 19,811.35.