10 Oct 2023

Key indices snap 2-day winning run amid geopolitical tensions

Indian equity benchmarks snapped a two-day winning run and ended with losses of around three fourth of a percent on Monday, amid escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and surging crude oil prices overseas. Benchmarks made a gap-down opening and stayed in red throughout the day as traders remained cautious after the RBI data showed that India's forex reserves drop by $3.79 billion to $586.91 billion for the week ended September 29. Besides, foreign fund outflows dented domestic sentiments. According to the provisional data available on the NSE, foreign institutional investors (FII) offloaded shares worth net Rs 90.29 crore on October 6, 2023. Traders also remained on sidelines ahead of Index of industrial production (IIP) data for August and Consumer price index (CPI) data for September slated to be announced on October 12. 

Traders paid no heed towards the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) bi-monthly consumer confidence survey (CCS) showing that consumer confidence for the September reverted to its recovery path after a brief pause in July 2023 round of the survey. The current situation index (CSI) reached a four-year high on the back of respondents' better assessment of current general economic situation and employment conditions in September 2023. Meanwhile, the commerce ministry's arm Directorate General of Trade Remedies (DGTR) has recommended an anti-dumping duty of up to 82 per cent on imports of wheel loaders from China for five years to protect domestic players. 

On the global front, European markets were mostly trading in red as a sharp jump in oil prices along with stronger-than-expected U.S. jobs data and hawkish comments from a Federal Reserve official rekindled worries about inflation and interest-rate hikes. Asian markets ended mostly higher on Monday even as rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and uncertainty over the Federal Reserve's rate hike path.

Finally, the BSE Sensex fell 483.24 points or 0.73% to 65,512.39 and the CNX Nifty was down by 141.15 points or 0.72% to 19,512.35.     

The BSE Sensex touched high and low of 65,789.98 and 65,434.61, respectively. There were 3 stocks advancing against 27 stocks declining on the index.

The broader indices ended in red; the BSE Mid cap index fell 1.22%, while Small cap index was down by 1.72%.

The top losing sectoral indices on the BSE were Utilities down by 1.93%, PSU down by 1.70%, Power down by 1.58%, Industrials down by 1.45% and Consumer Durables down by 1.42%, while there were no gaining sectoral indices on the BSE.

The few gainers on the Sensex were HCL Technologies up by 1.02%, Hindustan Unilever up by 0.47% and TCS up by 0.47%. On the flip side, Mahindra & Mahindra down by 2.05%, Bajaj Finance down by 1.73%, Tata Steel down by 1.67%, SBI down by 1.53% and Kotak Mahindra Bank down by 1.35% were the top losers.

Meanwhile, Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor Shaktikanta Das has said that India is poised to become the new growth engine of the world as the central bank retained the country's GDP growth forecast at 6.5 per cent for 2023-24, notwithstanding the slowing global economy. He said macroeconomic stability and inclusive growth are the fundamental principles underlying a country's progress. He also said ‘the policy mix that we have pursued during the recent years of multiple and unparalleled shocks has fostered macroeconomic and financial stability.’ He added that the external sector also remains eminently manageable.

Das further said the twin balance sheet stress that was encountered a decade ago has now been replaced by a twin balance sheet advantage with healthier balance sheets of both banks and the corporate. He observed that the global economy is slowing under the impact of tight financial conditions, protracted geopolitical tensions and increasing geo-economic fragmentation. He said global trade is contracting, headline inflation is easing but rules above the target in major economies.

The governor further said in contrast to global trends, domestic economic activity exhibits resilience on the back of strong domestic demand. Domestic demand conditions are expected to benefit from sustained buoyancy in services, revival in rural demand, consumer and business optimism, the government’s thrust on capex, and healthy balance sheets of banks and corporates. He added that headwinds from global factors like geopolitical tensions, volatile financial markets and energy prices, and climate shocks pose risks to the growth outlook.

The CNX Nifty traded in a range of 19,588.95 and 19,480.50. There were 7 stocks advancing against 43 stocks declining on the index.

The top gainers on Nifty were Dr. Reddy's Lab up by 1.13%, HCL Technologies up by 0.94%, Tata Consumer Product up by 0.56%, ONGC up by 0.41% and Hindustan Unilever up by 0.34%. On the flip side, Adani Ports &SEZ down by 5.09%, HDFC Life Insurance down by 2.68%, Hero MotoCorp down by 2.50%, Mahindra & Mahindra down by 2.19% and BPCL down by 2.07% were the top losers.

European markets were trading mostly lower; France’s CAC fell 14.54 points or 0.21% to 7,045.61 and Germany’s DAX lost 65.97 points or 0.44% to 15,163.80, while UK’s FTSE 100 increased 22.81 points or 0.3% to 7,517.39.

Asian markets ended mostly higher on Monday ahead to the release of US inflation data and the minutes of the Federal Reserve's latest policy meeting later this week for further clues about the US Federal Reserve's future interest rate path. Hong Kong shares finished higher as trading resumed after a typhoon-related interruption. However, a sharp jump in oil prices following political uncertainty and instability in the Middle East, limited further gains in Asian indices. Markets in Japan, Taiwan and South Korea were closed for holidays. 

Asian Indices

Last Trade            

Change in Points

Change in %      

Shanghai Composite

3,096.92

-13.56

-0.44

Hang Seng

17,517.40

31.42

0.18

Jakarta Composite

6,891.46

2.94

0.04

KLSE Composite

1,417.26

0.38

0.03

Nikkei 225

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--

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Straits Times

3,166.51

-7.88

-0.25

KOSPI Composite

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--

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Taiwan Weighted

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